AUD,NZD/FXWW News/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Likely to range trade ahead of RBA tomorrow

  • AUD/USD still looks technically extremely oversold but no sign of a bottom forming.
  • AUD/NZD has rallied strongly from 1.12 base, but on back of NZD weakness rather than AUD strength.
  • AUD/JPY is mid-range at 88.00 but looks like a sell-rally proposition whilst still below 89.50.
  • Overall AUD positioning is at extreme levels which means that we will get a severe short-covering rally as soon as any good news breaks.

Looks like it should trade .8850/.9000 over coming sessions and I’m happy to throw in a speculative bid near .8775 technical support.

  1. GM Sean. Didn you make a huge call on EURAUD many months ago? Like, when it was in 30s you said it would go up to +50s. Now look at it. Legendary. Only wish I was on board!

  2. Morning mate. Actually I went long around 1.23 🙂 but took profit at 1.33 🙁 Thought we’d see a small dip back below 1.30 and missed 15 big figs 🙁 🙁

  3. Hi Sean. What do you think of the chances of a rate cut by RBA tmr? Foregone conclusion as the OIS mkt predicts or? In the event of a non-cut, how severe will aud shoot up in your opinion? 92/93? And if so guess it is still a sell rally bounce from there? Thanks.

  4. Looks like a racing certainty now Matt after slow retail sales data. Non-cut would see 9050 tested but prob not much higher given current bearish sentiment. But, mkt is very short so non-cut and neutral statement might do trick??

  5. Thanks Sean. Aussie’s fundamentals has dramatically turned for the worse in these few months. Doubt RBA will reduce their dovishness in their statement given recent Stevens’ speeches. Hope it doesn’t collapse though..

  6. The market is v v short Matt according to all reports so I don’t see it collapsing. Agree, Stevens likely to stay dovish. What I’d like to know is, why weren’t they trying to talk the AUD lower when it was at 105 for a year?

  7. Exactly Sean! I am seriously wondering what were they thinking then? Possible reasons I could think of when it was still at 105, data like the retail, employment etc were still ‘rosy’ and they didn’t see the urge/urgency to talk it down? Rem the explosive employment numbers in Mar? In addition, China was still in easing mode so that’s probably why RBA weren’t too concerned then? Leaves much to be desired on the delayed reactionary nature of RBA rather than the proactiveness expected?

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