AUD,NZD/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD intraday outlook: Range-trading likely between 1.0370/1.0470

Yesterday mornings highs just above 1.0470 are the first obvious resistance level and risk-sentiment will determine whether we test these or not today. There was some heavy AUD/JPY selling out of Tokyo yesterday and if this is repeated then we will fall back to test yesterdays lows at 1.0370. In other words, more range trading expected. In the bigger picture, I still like the wedge formation on the weekly chart and more especially so after the RBA yesterday confirmed that they’ve been selling AUD on the quiet.

Real money funds have been persistent buyers over the last 4 sessions and AUD/USD will have trouble falling whilst this continues.

Summary: Play 1.0330/1.0580 range in medium term but with a definite sell-rally bias at these levels as long as weekly wedge is relevant. Shorter-term ranges will depend on prevailing risk sentiment, with 1.0370/1.0470 likely to contain prices.

  1. Hey Sean,

    I really appreciate your above analysis and information regarding who was doing the buying in AUD/USD. It seemed that the pair was destined to dip further, but a lot of money came in to buy circa 1.0370.

    In AUD/JPY I’m watching the the trend line that was obliterated yesterday, but then taken back in a somewhat surprising fashion. The pair is holding right around the 81.60 support, but I’m watching for the tumble to begin again.

    If someone just saw the massive selling in the JPY-crosses last night and you told them that USD/JPY did not fall below 78, I don’t think they would believe you. It makes me think that the japanese postal service pension fund was, almost without a doubt, sitting on the bid down there.

    I also wanted to ask you if you had any confirmation on the Chinese bringing warships into the waters near the disputed islands? I haven’t been able to find anything.

    Thanks a lot,


  2. Hey Zach, Reuters reported yesterday afternoon that they were nearing the disputed area and this caused extra panic. I haven’t heard anything more today. Very heavy 2-way turnover in AUD but with RBA looking more determined to stop the rise, I’m in the sell rally camp overall

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