AUD,NZD/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD: Heavy above 1.0600 as market eyes RBA

The AUD/USD stalled again just above 1.0600 on Friday with the market now convinced that, if current strength continues, the RBA will cut rates next month in order to stem the rising AUD.

The AUD/USD 4-hr chart is starting to retrace from over-bought levels after a 5-wave up-move and buying dips looks to be the best play here.

The longer-term AUD/USD chart is still in consolidation phase and should be toppy on any approach to 1.0700.

A quick look at the EUR/AUD daily chart shows that this pair broke above prior highs at 1.2400 but is stalling just shy of important Fibo resistance at 1.2485.

My conclusion is that we should trade 1.04/1.07 over next week or so.

  1. The risk-reward looks pretty good at the moment Maji. We will probably see some more 13080/13160 range trading during Asia but I do prefer the short side with a stop above 13200 on a medium term play. EUR/JPY is a bit of a worry as it still looks very strong but I think a short EUR/USD is a reasonable play at current levels.

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