AUD/USD: Buying dips now favoured in shortish-term

Yesterday’s RBA decision certainly surprised me and I’m still sitting on my medium term short position but I’m not feeling so confident anymore. Nevertheless, we can expect some volatility when the US election results start flowing later today and hopefully I can trade my way in and out once that movement starts.

Reserve managers are reportedly looking to buy now around 1.0350 so that says to me that levels near 1.0370 will probably find plenty of buyers (like me 🙂 ) and the obvious technical target is the top of the weekly wedge near 1.0600 (hopefully it doesn’t go there in a hurry).

An Obama win in the election will probably be mildly risk-negative in the short-term (compared with Romney) but also mildly USD-negative (more Bernanke) so that’s overall AUD neutral. A Romney win would be seen as risk-positive so good for pairs like AUD/JPY in particular.

  1. From recent action in Asia I am getting optimistic. Your target of 1.037 seems reachable. Cheers. Thank you for level references.

  2. Yes,

    suddenly spiked in the past few mins. where did this come from? any news behind this latest move up from 1.0409 to 1.0424

  3. Now I am scratching my head. ES is down and AUD/USD is up…. go figure… Decided to add long ES to the mix… Not sure it is a right choice.

  4. Sean I totally agree with you, logic totally rests… Market is finicky and quite moody. ES worked nicely for me. For a change got some positive PL on the long side, flipped it back to increase short in AUD. I just can not imagine positive AUD with 1% down in SP. EUR/USD looks constructive on the long side, but I am afraid of that pair at the moment. long EUR/AUD might be a good idea.

  5. Kirill, I hear that 10470 ish should be tough to crack first time so looks like 10370/10470 ish range and we will need patience. EUR/USD prefer buy dips now and shud see 12880 tested over next few hours, prob 12810/80 there imho??

  6. Sean, I am with you about patience. I am just truly amazed by Muppet show in ES. We already had couple 0.75-1% swings there. And Europe has not started dancing yet….

  7. damm I hate these days where prices spike on news which they are already aware of. having said that I am again stopped out of my eur/usd shorts. so all news priced in the markets now

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