AUD,NZD/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD: Bearish but decent support waiting at 1.0100

Fibonacci retracements are obviously much less reliable in non-trending markets and this pair has been forming a sideways wedge pattern on the weekly chart for the last 18 months, basically trading without a trend. Nevertheless, the market still pays attention to these levels and with a low on the daily chart also near the 50% retracement at 1.0100, intraday dips are likely to run into solid support.

I’m still of the view that big global macro hedge funds are trying to build shorts in AUD/USD after the RBA rate cut and bearish statement on China, so the most immediate pressure will remain to the downside.

  1. Sean, I have to say I am cautiously bearish on AUD. I think the cut by RBA in the last meeting is only marginally justified after carefully reading their statements (this is my view obviously). And if this Thursday job report come out better it could shift the sentiment on AUD.

    I am less bearish on China in the s/t than most of the analyst review. I think the national congress will give the economy a boost.

  2. Sean,

    I have a sell signal on EUR/AUD after a long time. H4 is bearish and a potential top off may be formed. Ur Views?

  3. Certainly a possible top on s/t charts and is definitely way overbought so risk-reward in selling with tight s/l does make sense. Overall think we will go 132/133 on this pair but certainly could easily pullback to 12650ish first imho

  4. Sean,
    I would like to add to your analysis the following.

    On a weekly chart for AUDUSD, we can see that the weekly 100MA has provided support several times, but that las week we closed below this key support. The last time we broke the weekly 100MA was during May’s risk off. However, the weekly 150MA provided us support at that time.

    Therefore, I would say I am now fully bearish on AUDUSD and will look to sell any move up. For instance employment number which are often a lagging economic indicator could offer us a rally in AUDUSD.

    New important resistance comes at 0.99 (150 weekly MA) and parity 1.00.

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