AUD,NZD/Flows and Orders/FXWW News/Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Adding small longs near .9050

  • AUD/NZD might be forming a basing pattern (see chart).
  • Recent lows in AUD/USD at .9035 have held for a second time.
  • Large buyers are being reported just ahead of .9000 so we may have a barrier in play.
  • The AUD has managed to defend important levels on a weekly basis against the EUR and the JPY.

I’m adding small AUD/USD longs near .9050 but will keep a tight stop on things.

  1. Morning Sean , it certainly seems like the fortune could turn for the Aussie. EurAud looks like a good bet on the downside. Inability to form a higher high on a daily chart shows weakness , and a h&s on 4h could be the trigger for reversal. I see Aussie being supported also by AudJpy which looks set to reverse and continue the larger up trend.
    Have a great week and good luck trading !

  2. Hi Sean, I am little confused. I want to take long on Aud but this fall looks different. Every time there was a correction in Aud it happened during fall with stock markets but this one is totally different Dow holding strong and we see commodity currency falling. This looks more like 2008. If market starts correcting then we might unfold deeper correction!? This is holding me back. What is ur opinion?

  3. Certainly plenty of conflicting signals George and I am by no means certain at all. This mkt is hugely different to 2008 in that there has been no massive build up of carry trades like we had then in the FX mkt. I still like the idea of buying dips around these levels but I’m trading with tight stops now as timing is proving tricky

  4. Take a look at Gbp/nzd, stopped exactly at uptrend on daily chart and bounces. Despite the bearish Gbp/usd, I am itching to go long on this one. I still do not understand the whole bearishness on GBP despite recent upsided economic news. Market totally ignoring it due to Carney. I think it’s time to collect gbp. What’s ur take Sean? Sorry too many questions but just wanted to know ur opinion on this before I start building my position. Thank you

  5. Hi Sean, hope we will see at least 38.2% retracement soon in AUDUSD, EURAUD and NZDUSD, as like we had seen 38.2% in USDJPY (93.75) and 61.8% in GBPUSD (1.575). That will be an excellent opportunity to enter the bear train. Also, it looks like GBPUSD will hit 1.45/1.375, (your call in early 2013) before retracing to 1.75/2.10.

  6. Sean, to be honest I have now read about your attempts to trade against the trend for many days and each time you got burned either right after you put the trade on or soon thereafter. With all due respect to your obvious trading experience but right now trends in commodity currencies look to me to be very strong and persistent. Also dollar buying is relentless. You are basically trying to pick tops and bottoms here and this, as you are well aware, is a futile endeavor. There is not a single reason AUD may not trade down straight into the mid 80s.

    Having said this, if I knew you are a very short term oriented trader then there is no harm in attempting to capture 30-50 pips on bounces here and there given you established an edge in this line of business. However, I got the impression that you look to trade currencies more mid- to long-term and in this case you may in aggregate lose more on your many entries and subsequent stop outs than the 200-400 pips you make in the end on a larger move should the dollar get eventually again sold in size. The same applies to your cable stabs. I may have applied wrong assumptions to your trading horizon as this is a mere observation. Care to comment?

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