AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/JPY crosses/Others

AUD/NZD probing recent lows at 1.2100

Even though we’ve broken below daily support at 1.2140, bearish momentum hasn’t really increased and this pair has been struggling to break below 1.2100. In fact it’s trading like a pair that has some barrier protection in play, but that’s a pure guess on my part.

The NZD/USD has been the leader again this morning, trading up to .8515 and dragging the AUD/USD and EUR/USD with it. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are staying static thus far.

  1. It seems I was wrong on AUD/NZD, but it shows an interesting change in market behaviour. AUD is lagging in current risk on push. This in addition to false attempt to take over 1.06 recently is a first serious crack in teflonium. Will see how it handles battle of JPY/USD with 100, but my thinking that selling any decent rally in aud is the way to go. Strength of kiwi is totally beyond me, so better leave it for now.

  2. And gone! NZD can be moved fast, I guess. AUD/NZD dropped 20 pips in 2 minutes when they did the first try.
    BTW, is there a fundamental rationale behind this trade?

  3. Maybe those AUD pushes in London two weeks ago were largely part of driving NZD higher to kill the bears or that AUD likes to race with NZD due to some correlation stuff .
    I think there was also NZ bond redemption on the 14th, so the pump also enabled to cash out at attractive levels. But now it seem to be going up even more aggressively.

  4. Fundamentally i like kiwi on the short side in apr-sep period due to predominance of agricultuarl seaspnality in exports, but recently this sesonality is trumped by financial flows from china and japan. My original idea was purely technical and was based on constructive H1 plus possibility of double bottom on dailies. In general it is still valid, but one needs to wait for next stabilization on H1.

  5. Gbp/nzd???? It’s like trading oil to nat gas spread, kind of similar, but has nothing to do with each other…. Anyway i have looked and it is is bullish… May be I will put something there, but only if my foray in exotic land via aud/nzd would go into money :)))) but you are right gbp is bullish across the board, i am still looking for bearish entry, but it could be around 1.6… So no rush

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