AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/FXWW News/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas/USD/JPY

AUD/JPY will open the week at a very important level

The inverted head and shoulders (see chart) on the short-term charts has a right shoulder at 90.00 and that is exactly where the market closed last week. If this level can hold (and I hope it can as I’m long), then we should see a sharp rally. On the other hand, there could be tight stops just below there in thin Monday early-Asian markets but they will probably all be done and dusted before the retail market opens.

USD/JPY should find strong support at 93.40/50, which was the launch level immediately after the big BOJ announcements at the April meeting. AUD/USD actually looks and feels a bit heavy, so if AUD/JPY is to race higher then is will probably be via the USD/JPY leg.

EUR/USD started to feel a bit heavy towards 1.34 so we may get some snail-paced range trading between 1.32/1.34.

  1. Hi, Sean,

    You mentioned the launch level of USD/JPY after the BOJ announcement, but the E/J , G/J are still away that level. Do you think the pressure from these pairs would have impact on AUD/JPY cross.



  2. Fair point Mike, mkts do tend to revert to major event levels, all othr things being equal. But mkt doesn’t really pay lot of attention to crosses so don’t think that many traders focus on this.

  3. hy sean,

    i agree with you i trade the european session, so i will look how audjpy develops in the asian session. i think there is in usdjpy and eurjpy as well a short term long potential, as 125 seems a good support for eurjpy.

    but i will also watch out for eurusd and gbpusd, how the develop on wednesday due to the FED, I’m actually short in gbpusd, with a tinny position. i think we are able to see the 61,8% retracement where i am willing to sell again. so fed will be a main driver, as i think the don’t will calm down the USD short thinking of the market but anyway, GBPUSD has rosen more than 700 pips without a real consolidation pattern.

    as you pointed out AUDUSD seems a bit heavy, maybe a short opportunity, but in daily chart you can see a clear bearish divergence in the RSI, so where do you think will AUDUSD head. to my mind Fed statement will of course be the main driver in this pair.

    good trading 😉

  4. Aussie may get another down leg to complete 1-2-3-4- ? 5 exhaustive pattern from 0.984x to nearby 0.9230 — 0.9200. Then, significant bounce up like cable did. If close abv 0.9700, then, good pullback may unfold.

  5. BoJ seem like u-jpy in 90 to 95 zone for best Japan economic, but, market ran over to 103.7x unexpected. So, BoJ won’t do anything, let the market to correct and balance. 90.85 to 90.7x low may be a bottom. 92.50 may be a support, too. Don’t know at moment.

  6. hy jack1,

    why do you suppose BOJ to prefer 90-95 as the best for japans economy. is there a clear statement?

    110 or higher would support export more, but makes import energy and other things more expensive, so they have to decide.

    like the ECB which supports the euro everytime during the last 30-40 session during 2-4 to push the eurusd higher, so energy import gets cheaper, which they think will boost european economy

  7. Before yen dropped last Sept,somebody of BoJ talked 90 and 95 level。Too fast devalue is a crack for Japan asset price,price steadibility is a goal for central bank。If you know yen will drop 20%,then, you won’t buy japanese equity for 20% gain。

  8. Good morning, Sean! My opinion on the Euro, sale, from 1.3440 and further 1.3518, stop above 1.3580 and targets in the area of 1.2500-1.2465, I occupy their positions in the Euro. This mid opinion. Good luck to you, Sean!

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