AUD/JPY trade: Risky longs in play
I’ve got a relatively small long position here at 80.68 with a 40 pip stop-loss and I will look to add to the position above 80.80 and again above 80.95. My motivation is stop-loss orders; there are sell orders in USD/JPY near 79.00 but there are also large stops from option players at various levels above there. Similarly in AUD/USD, there are plenty of sell orders above 1.0300 but also reportedly large stop-loss buy orders above there. The professional market is already short AUD but the recent strengthening in Asian currencies must surely be worrying them? With regards risk from today’s RBA minutes, the market is already pricing in a 90% possibility of a rate cut next month so there’s really no upside for the doves and plenty of potential for disappointment. I think it’s a reasonable risk-reward trade.