AUD/JPY: Time to take a risky short position

I’ve just gone short at 95.50 with a tight-ish stop above 96.00. I have no set level yet but will chop if we break new highs. If the market consolidates below 95.80 I will increase the position size.

  1. damm sean. what the hell is happening with these japs. are they going to take it to 100 before march. what will be the ramifications of such a ferocious move. what if abe faces backlash from europe and US. US is quiet but at some point of time they will hit back if they see japan growing by 3%

  2. The amazing thing Nachiket is that they haven’t really done anything yet. The whole Yen weakening has been on the back of what they plan to do. The way it’s going you’re right, it could be 100 next week

  3. For once the market is giving Japanese leadership the benefit of the doubt. I was a big-time skeptic back in November, and closed my short yen positions quickly, but to their credit the Japanese leadership group have put forth a united front with a very clear and powerful message.

    From a non-trading point of view, I don’t see how a weaker yen is really going to help them while they are so dependent on foreign energy imports, but that’s not something one can trade on in the short term.

  4. Japanese are wiping out accounts. now i sincerely think usd/jpy will go to 95 sometime next week and don’t think any intervention will help because japanese seem to ignore everything now

    1. That’s my fear too Sean. Weak yen, OK fine. If they can get inflation then maybe it will help them get out of their huge debt problem, but it’s a fine line between that and destroying confidence in the currency and a triggering a full on debt crisis. Probably too early to be worrying about it, but I tend to think they would at some stage seek to get the market to move at a little more orderly pace.

  5. It must be said that if accounts are being wiped out, it’s the individual traders who wiped out their own accounts. The Japanese didn’t force anyone to be long JPY over the past two and a half months.

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