AUD,NZD/JPY crosses/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

AUD/JPY: Looks like a ‘sell-break’ set-up

I think the market is looking to get short the AUD but hasn’t really even started yet (in fact latest IMM data shows the market is still long although Prime Brokers say that the big global macro funds have already started to build short positions).

A quick look at the AUD/JPY daily chart shows a strong line of support across a number of daily lows but if this line breaks, I think we could see a sharp vertical fall towards 75.00. I’m looking to sell smalls on a break below 79.60, 79.40 and again below 79.20. I’m normally not a big fan of selling breaks but I think this is one trade where momentum could really pick up once the break happens.

  1. From your comment “Asia open market” : ” AUD/USD: Large sell orders from global macro hedge funds ensured that the pair couldn’t rise after the positive US data and what can’t go up usually goes down.”
    After the NFP release, I have monitored this cross I was really very impressive that the prices haven’t spiked up. One month ago, it has climbed for 5 days… I think, you are right with your AUD/USD sentiment.

  2. Sean,

    For this trade, if we break 79.60, do you open a position without confirmation or do you wait about 40 pips deeper to confirm this break ?

  3. Evening Sean, well my GBPAUD looks ok, see we got to about 50 odd pips off first target; as you say AUD looks soft so a target another 300 higher looks a potential

  4. Sean,

    Obviously, we have some offers at 80.10/20. Do you know the strength of this bids ? You are my eyes with your squawk box 😉

  5. The guys I’m listening to are v bearish USD/JPY and say the stops will go, but as we know we all talk our positions 🙂 I’d say AUD/JPY shud stay below 7980 now

  6. Yes and am still looking for the higher test in this climate; I saw one of your ‘men’ mentioned GBPNZD – completely concur, in fact that pair was my highest earner in the last 18 months after GOLD !

  7. I think stops can be lowered a bit, to 7995ish but I’m a stubborn old goat so will leave mine above 8010. US holiday tonight so mkt will start to die off in about 2 hours I’d say

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