Overall market positioning, based on CFTC and prime broker reports, would seem to suggest that general positioning is relatively neutral across these 3 commodity currencies; the speculative market is still slightly long of CAD but the big CAD and NZD longs of recent times have been heavily unwound. Real-money buyers and structural trades all seem to favour the commodity currencies over the USD, GBP and JPY and although amounts are not huge, they are generally all faced one way.

It will take a big swing in speculative sentiment to knock these currencies over and I’m not sure where that might come from.