AUD,NZD

AUD choppy after China GDP comes in as expected

The first move was down to test hourly support at 1.0360 after the Chinese GDP number came in exactly on expectations. From there, the market has popped up and posted marginal new highs above 1.0390. No real reason to get involved at these levels and parameters at 1.0320 and 1.0440 remain relevant. I’m still in the sell-big-rally camp but I have no strong bias at current levels.

  1. hi sean,
    i assume you chose 1.0320 because its the 38.2 % retracement of this move up and 1.0440 as its the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1.0620 to the recent bottom.
    So am i right in understanding that you believe a greater probability in a reversal at that level (61.8)?…but why not this current level..the 50%..this might seem an irrelevent question to ur experienced mind..but u have for some reason understood that the market has more room to move higher and I cannot grasp why!!!…thank you

  2. Yes the fact that it did not cross 1.0400 after such a strong data means the bull run is probably over and we test 1.0100. I think no easing as well now which the markets were speculating. china and india cannot ease that much.

  3. also they have to keep an eye on inflation as well. they had a hard time bringing it down to sub 3% from 8%. easing will waste all their efforts. USD rally starts today

  4. Hi Sean, my AUD chart is telling me around 1.0392 has strong supplies. My other indicators are telling me heavy supplies are involved and the tick volume is high with heavy resistance. Fingers crossed, my TP is the previous supply level at 1.03220.

  5. Rahul, 10320 was the pivotal lvl on way down so it became resistance and now shud be suppt again. I’ve picked 10440 simply because the mkt is still short so we might see overextension, but that’s just a guess on my part

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