Open/Wrap

Asian market open

You can click through here and read my full opening comments on FX Street.

  1. Morning Sean, are you still in your USD/CHF trade? What do you think of it? I just went short. It looks overbought on the H4 timeframe.

  2. I traded it a bit overnight so have improved my average but to be honest, I’m really not very sure about it. I’ve got a stop now below 9230 and will give up if that breaks. EUR/USD looks to have found a base in s/t at 13040 so you shud be ok with short Swissy; I presume you are looking for quick 40/50 pips?

    1. > Yes, looking for quick 40/50 pips in the next couple of sessions. TP is the previous peak around 0.93. Good luck with your trade.

  3. Hi Sean,

    Glad to see your USD/CHF trade rebounded in your favor earlier.

    Question….why would safe haven flows in CHF want to go back to Europe now? I mean, if I have large amounts stored in Switzerland, why bring it back home to Europe if they might go negative as well?

    Perhaps it will be quite a long time now before CHF safe haven flows even think about starting to unwind? Months? Maybe years?

    On the other hand, with the ECB’s efforts (rate cut and just mentioning negative rates) …which on the surface would seem to be very EUR negative….but maybe it can be interpreted as possibly leading to an overall better Eurozone economic recovery someday (I know it’s the ECB’s goal, but the market may have other perceptions)…….so perhaps good for EUR and EUR/CHF?

    Your thoughts, as always, would be greatly appreciated.

  4. What you say is completely valid AJ, and in fact I’ve been considering exactly the same thing; there is no reason to exit CHF assets to buy EZ assets. I’m a stubborn old trader so will leave my stop on this trade below 9230 but I traded it a bit overnight and have improved my overall position so I’m not overly concerned now even if I get stopped out.

  5. Yeah, that is what I have sorta been doing with my long EUR/CHF….cutting some on rallies and adding on dips….improving the position overall. But now I am seriously cutting the whole thing on any kind of rally towards 1.23 or so….and just leaving it alone. It might not go down much more, but it also might not go up much either…..that’s the thing with this pair. It can have some decent moves….but it can also just sit and make small 30 pip ranges for weeks and months on end. Meanwhile, I’m paying daily swap with my broker.

    I think we might be headed for one of this pair’s trademark extended small range trading (unless the SNB pulls out a nuclear option of a floor raise or negative rates itself…both which I doubt will happen anytime soon). For now I’ll sit on the trade and see what happens. SNB has a meeting next month. Maybe some rumors and speculation will send the pair up some leading up to it…and then I’ll reassess and possibly look to get out.

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insight on this topic.

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