Asian market open

You can read my opening comments on FX Street.

  1. Hi Sean,

    I was pleasantly surprised to find you were back to market commentary again!

    What a strange world the place is at the moment.
    – In the US the politicians are bashing the Fed for it’s non-conventional policies.
    – In Japan the politicians are bashing the BoJ for it’s lack of non-conventional policies.

    At least we are fortunate enough to have a choice of clueless idiots to vote for, and the outcomes are a reflection of ourselves…

    That said, I don’t know if Romney is just blowing smoke, but if he looks likely to win the US election a long USD/JPY trade seems to be in order.

  2. Great to hear from you again fxgai, I was going to try and look you up as I miss your excellent insights into what the Japanese retail mkt is doing. Agree re election, if Romney wins then we see an initial USD buying binge but then the world will remember George W and smash the USD to bits.

  3. You’d have been disappointed Sean – TFX ceased releasing that positioning data publicly as of May. I think they had someone manually posting the data each day, because it never came out at a consistent time. I suspect TFX trading volumes might be suffering this year too – a favourable change towards tax on profits with margin FX brokers came into effect from this year which may have hurt the exchange based trading that TFX is involved in. That’s pure speculation on my part.

    There was a curious jump in USD/JPY yesterday during the presidential debate. I wasn’t watching the Nikkei but that jumped too. Who knows which led the other though.

    Definitely true that the US deficit isn’t likely to be fixed anytime soon, but I was telling Pandu the other day that there is a growing discontent amongst Japanese people about their own politicians’ ability to handle Japan’s fiscal mess. The Japanese bookstores have heaps of material these days about shifting out of yen assets and either offshore or at least into foreign currencies to protect those precious household savings from an impending Japanese fiscal crisis, either through JGB default or (hyper)inflation, whichever the politicians decide is more palatable. (They seem to prefer inflation.) Figuring out what assets Japanese folks may buy should be the trade… Euro has been beaten down a lot already, Dollar has it’s problems, and with China slowing the commodity currencies may be coming off… As is always the case timing may be important. I did see one book in the shop the other day with “USD/JPY 50 is inevitable” emblazoned on the cover…

  4. Interesting indeed, as we know if you wanna sell a book then you need a catchy title 🙂 My scenario for USD/JPY still hopes for a dip to 71/72ish and then we get the big turnaround to take us back toward 100 again. It’s just too slow at the moment and can’t generate any momentum so almost impossible to trade

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