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I'm not expecting any massive moves but with EUR/JPY looking decidedly toppy, and with heavy longs in pairs like NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY starting to exit the market, I'm still solidly in the bear camp for the short-term at least. Selling straight USD/JPY is probably the least risky way of playing
Long GBP has been the trade of choice (along with long NZD) amongst professional traders over the last 6 months. The big macro players are still very long and I suspect that they may start re-assessing if we get a weekly close below 1.7000. Present markets are being influenced more
- The USD has made some decent gains across the board with profit-taking in GBP/USD and NZD/USD having a big influence;
- The AUD was well supported by AUD/NZD buying and improving fundamentals;
- There are a large number of expiries and strikes around .9400 which will continually drag prices back towards there,
Absolutely no respite for the NZD today and the bears have taken over control. NZD/USD is encountering waves of selling from multiple directions with long positions exiting en-masse. I still like the buy-dip play but I'm in no rush and there's no point in a short-term selling strategy imho, as I've
Reuters headline quoting a newspaper interview with the SNB Chief. No surprise there.
Most of the action is still in the flightless bird with stops triggered below .8590 in NZD/USD and the AUD/NZD cross trading above 1.1000.
The number was slightly above expectations and the market seems happy to try buying the AUD. AUD/NZD got a boost after the RBNZ this morning and there are big levels looming above 1.1000. AUD/USD looks like it will now gravitate towards big option strikes/expiries at .9500 and .9525.