Latest From The Blog
- Market is caught long and is in retracement mode;
- NFP day is usually a big day for USD/JPY volatility;
- Resistance levels now start around 102.20/30;
- Strong technical support levels start near 100.80 (see chart).
- The EUR looks quite strong on the crosses with EUR/AUD consolidating gains and EUR/GBP rebounding sharply;
- The break above 1.3625 reinforces the medium-term bullish outlook for EUR/USD;
- Nevertheless, this pair has basically been sideways trading for the last year so don't get carried away. I'd look to trade a 1.3575/1.3775 range in
- AUD/NZD support at 1.1000 continues to hold. One trader whose opinion I value highly thinks that we will see one last exhaustive sell-off to somewhere on 1.08 handle, or maybe even slightly lower, before common sense and normality returns for a relief rally towards 1.1500;
- GBP/AUD is seriously overbought on most
One thing that will never change in the FX market is that erstwhile bears change their coats and become bulls at the top of the market. That's what's been happening recently with the Sterling; the market was bearish GBP/JPY at 135 and suddenly was getting all bulled up at 170.
- Stops tripped above 1.3625 in EUR/USD with more reported above 1.3640;
- Stops tripped below 101.90 in USD/JPY;
- Asian real-money names noted selling AUD/USD rallies near .9050.
Looking for extremely over-bought or over-sold conditions can be a very profitable exercise in the FX market. Of course there are plenty of false alarms but if you trade them properly, these signals can be very profitable. Even though I'm a medium term GBP bull, the short-term signals are looking increasingly